The Survey of Firms’ Inflation Expectations

Abstract

The inflation expectations of individuals who lead firms can influence the prices that their firms charge customers and hence can influence overall inflation. This Economic Commentary summarizes results from the Survey of Firms’ Inflation Expectations (SoFIE), which asks top business executives for their inflation expectations once per quarter alongside a second question from a rotating set. We document that this group’s inflation expectations increased with the run-up in inflation over 2021 and 2022 but then began to decline in early 2023. The Cleveland Fed will post estimates from the Survey of Firms’ Inflation Expectations each quarter, available via clefed.org/SoFIE.