Behavior of a New Median PCE Measure: A Tale of Tails-Reference-Cited by-同舟云学术

Behavior of a New Median PCE Measure: A Tale of Tails

Published:2019-07-09 Issue: Volume: Page:1-7
ISSN:2163-3738
Container-title:Economic Commentary (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)
language:en
Short-container-title:EC (FRB Cleveland)

Author:

Carroll Daniel R.¹^ORCID,Verbrugge Randal J.¹^ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Abstract

We introduce two new measures of trend inflation, a median PCE inflation rate and a median PCE excluding OER inflation rate, and investigate their performance. Our analysis indicates that both perform comparably to other simple trend inflation estimators such as the trimmed-mean PCE. Furthermore, we find that the performance of the median PCE is related to skewness in the distribution of cross-sectional growth rates across categories in the PCE, and our results suggest that the Bowley skewness statistic may be useful in forecasting.

Publisher

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Reference19 articles.

1. Ashley, Richard, and Randal Verbrugge. 2019. “Variation in the Phillips Curve Relation across Three Phases of the Business Cycle.” Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Working Paper, No. 19-09.

2. Bednar, Bill, and Edward S. Knotek II. 2014. “What’s Up in Inflation? Shelter and OER.” Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Trends, 02.21.14.

3. Bednar, Bill, and Todd E. Clark. 2014. “Methods for Evaluating Recent Trend Inflation.” Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Trends, 03.28.14.

4. Blinder, Alan S., and Ricardo Reis. 2005. “Understanding the Greenspan Standard.” In The Greenspan Era: Lessons for the Future. A Symposium Sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Jackson Hole, Wyoming, August 25–27.

5. Bowley, Arthur Lyon. 1901. Elements of Statistics. P.S. King & Son, London.

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