Reliability analysis of multi-site damage with failure dependency of the turbine based on flow-thermal-solid coupling analysis and the Monte Carlo validated simulations

Abstract

The harsh environmental loads may lead to strength failure in the turbine in an aero-engine. To accurately assess the strength reliability of the turbine under multiple loads, the stress distributions of 41 danger sites of a turbine under thermal, centrifugal, and pneumatic loads were determined by the flow-thermal-solid coupling analysis using ANSYS. Second, based on the flow-thermal-solid coupling analysis and response surface method, the probabilistic analysis model of stress at the danger site was established. And the probabilistic distribution of stress was determined by sampling and hypothesis testing. Finally, the reliability model of the turbine with multi-site damage and failure dependency was established, by which a reliability of 0.99802 was calculated. And the actual reliability of the turbine was 0.99626 determined by the Monte Carlo simulations, which verified the model in precision. The results indicated that the reliability model has a high efficiency and higher precision than the traditional reliability model with failure independence.