Crop yield forecasting of paddy and sugarcane through modified Hendrick and Scholl technique for south Gujarat

Abstract

Regression models by modified Hendrick and Scholl technique were developed on paddy and sugarcane for six districts of south Gujarat. The data on the yield and weather parameters were analyzed for 27 years. The 25 year data was used for development of the model. The validation of model was done using data set of 2010 and 2011. The stepwise regression analysis was executed by trial and error method to obtain the finest combination of predictors, significant at 5% level. The multiple regression techniques was used for fitting of the model and decided best by highest R2 and lowest percent error. All crop yield forecasting models gave good estimates and produced error percent within acceptable range. Analysis revealed that the model error percent of paddy and sugarcane for respective crop growing districts were -10.0 to 8.1% and -12.2 to 1.5% respectively. Crop yield forecasting for year 2012 based on validated model was made for the districts of Navsari, Surat, Bharuch, Valsad, Narmada and Tapi.