Pre-harvest estimation of wheat yield for NW India using climate and weather forecast

Abstract

The yield of a cultivar at any given location depends highly on  weather experienced during its life cycle interalia nutrition, soil moisture and management practices. Accurate weather prediction may help farmers to capitalise on benevolent weather and to take adequate steps to protect crops from adverse weather events. This task may be accomplished using crop simulation models linked with climate and weather forecast. But, reliability of weather forecast must be assessed in various agroclimatic zones before their adoption on operational basis.   For this purpose, evaluated CERES-Wheat model V3.5 was utilised to estimate yield and quantify value of perfect forecast for popular wheat genotypes at various  steps during crop season using  long term weather records in  NW India.  Accuracy of weather forecast (medium range) was also tested under different fertiliser, dates of sowing and moisture scenarios. Results indicate the suitability of the model for strategic planning, yield estimation and tactical decisions during crop growth season.