Statistical analysis of the volcanic eruption frequency in the azores islands : a contribution to risk assessment

Abstract

Abstract The datations of the last eruptive events which have occurred on 13 active volcanic complexes of the Azores are presented. By supposing that these events follow a statistical Poisson distribution, we estimate the occurrence period of these events, as well as the eruption probabilities for the next 300 years. Pico Mountain, Região dos Picos (São Miguel Island), the stratovolcano of Sete Cidades (São Miguel Island), the linear volcanic complexes of São Roque – Piedade (Pico Island) and of Capelo (Faial Island) must be considered as the most active volcanoes of the archipelago. The eruption styles of next eruptions are also specified.