The debate over Hubbert’s Peak: a review

Abstract

ABSTRACT The application of various quantitative techniques and assumptions by different authors to forecast the world’s conventional crude oil production in the 21st Century results in highly inconsistent predictions. The forecasts attempt to pinpoint the peak world oil production year (Hubbert’s Peak), peak production rate, and post-peak decline rate, based on estimates of the ultimate recoverable reserves (EURR). These techniques, pioneered by M.K. Hubbert in the mid-1950s, generally consider economic factors, such as the price of oil, as irrelevant in the long run. Some authors support a Low EURR World Scenario (about 2.0 trillion barrels, of which half has already been produced) and forecast Hubbert’s Peak in this decade. Other authors estimate the EURR at about 3.0 trillion barrels (Median EURR World Scenario), and this estimate is the mean EURR assessment of the United States Geological Survey and similar to assessments by several major oil and gas companies. An EURR of 3.0 trillion barrels implies Hubbert’s Peak will occur in 2020, or so, at a production rate of about 90–100 million barrels/day (compared to 85 million barrels/day in late 2005). A few authors support a High EURR World Scenario (4.0 trillion barrels or more) with Hubbert’s Peak in 2030 at a rate of 120 million barrels/day. Sensitivity analysis for Hubbert’s Curve suggest that Hubbert’s Peak moves by three years for every 200 billion barrels of error in the EURR.