Predicting Dynamic Effects of Large Earthquakes in Areas of Degrading Permafrost (Baikal-Mongolia Region)

Abstract

Abstract—The study addresses basic problems of modern geodynamics and seismicity of the Central Asian lithosphere. It aims at predicting dynamic effects of large earthquakes for seismic safety of the Baikal–Mongolia region. Special focus is made on the seismic behavior of areas where seismic risk zoning is problematic because of permafrost. The paper presents synthesis of previous and new data on ground responses to large earthquakes in specific territories of the Baikal–Mongolia region with complex cryological conditions. The results include shaking intensity patterns and predicted seismic parameter values for degraded permafrost in zones of different climates and seismicity levels. The obtained prediction maps can make reference in studies of variable permafrost responses to temperature, seismic, and mining-related impacts.