Oil Production Rate Forecasting by SA-LSTM Model in Tight Reservoirs

Abstract

Abstract The accurate forecasting of oil field production rate is a crucial indicator for each oil field’s successful development, but due to the complicated reservoir conditions and unknown underground environment, the high accuracy of production rate forecasting is a popular challenge. To find a low time consumption and high accuracy method for forecasting production rate, the current paper proposes a hybrid model, Simulated Annealing Long Short-Term Memory network (SA-LSTM), based on the daily oil production rate of tight reservoirs with the in situ data of injection and production rates in fractures. Furthermore, forecasting results are compared with the numerical simulation model output. The LSTM can effectively learn time-sequence problems, while SA can optimize the hyperparameters (learning rate, batch size, and decay rate) in LSTM to achieve higher accuracy. By conducting the optimized hyperparameters into the LSTM model, the daily oil production rate can be forecasted well. After training and predicting on existing production data, three different methods were used to forecast daily oil production for the next 300 days. The results were then validated using numerical simulations to compare the forecasting of LSTM and SA-LSTM. The results show that SA-LSTM can more efficiently and accurately predict daily oil production. The fitting accuracies of the three methods are as follows: numerical reservoir simulation (96.2%), LSTM (98.1%), and SA-LSTM (98.7%). The effectiveness of SA-LSTM in production rate is particularly outstanding. Using the same SA-LSTM model, we input the daily oil production data of twenty oil wells in the same block and make production prediction, and the effect is remarkable.