Translation of the UK Pediatric Influenza Vaccination Programme in Primary Schools to 13 European Countries Using a Dynamic Transmission Model

Abstract

Objectives: To simulate the impact of a pediatric influenza vaccination programme using quadrivalent live attenuated influenza vaccine (QLAIV) in Europe by applying coverage rates achieved in the United Kingdom during the 2014–2015 season and to compare the model outcomes to the UK results. Methods: We used a deterministic, age-structured, dynamic transmission model adapted to the demography, contact patterns and influenza incidence of 13 European countries, with a 10-year horizon. The reference strategy was the unchanged country-specific coverage rate, using quadrivalent inactivated vaccine (assumed efficacy against infection from 45% in 1-year-old children to 60% in healthy adults). In the evaluated strategy, 56.8% of 5–10-year-old children were additionally vaccinated with QLAIV (assumed efficacy 80%), as was the case in 2014–2015 in the United Kingdom’s primary school pilot areas. Symptomatic influenza cases and associated medical resources (primary care consultations [PCC], hospitalization, intensive care unit [ICU] admissions) were calculated. The evaluated versus reference strategies were compared using odds ratios (ORs) for PCC in the target (aged 5–10-years) and non-target adult (aged >17 years) populations as well as number needed to vaccinate (NNV) with QLAIV to avert one PCC, hospitalization or ICU admission. Model outcomes, averaged over 10 seasons, were compared with published real-life data from the United Kingdom for the 2014–2015 season. Results: Over 13 countries and 10 years, the evaluated strategy prevented 32.8 million of symptomatic influenza cases (172.3 vs 205.2 million). The resulting range of ORs for PCC was 0.18–0.48 among children aged 5–10-years, and the published OR in the United Kingdom was 0.06 (95% confidence interval [0.01; 0.62]). In adults, the range of ORs for PCC was 0.60–0.91 (UK OR=0.41 [0.19; 0.86]). NNV ranges were 6–19 per averted PCC (UK NNV=16), 530–1524 per averted hospitalization (UK NNV=317) and 5298–15 241 per averted ICU admission (UK NNV=2205). Conclusions: Across a range of European countries, our model shows the beneficial direct and indirect impact of a paediatric vaccination programme using QLAIV in primary school-aged children, consistent with what was observed during a single season in the United Kingdom. Recommendations for the implementation of pediatric vaccination programmes are, therefore, supported in Europe.