A Risk Assessment Proposal through System Dynamics

Abstract

The issues about legislation of safety management, as well as main techniques of "risk analysis and evaluation", are widely integrated in complex production environment. From an organizational and technological point of view, it’s not easy to implement these techniques in Small and Medium Enterprises. In fact, each technique does not permit a complete and exhaustive analysis and quantification of risks. Application of aforementioned methods does allow for achievement of a wide number of benefits. The aim of this paper is to critically analyse both analysis and risk assessment processes. In this paper, integration between System Dynamics and Layers of Protection Analysis technique is provided in order to enhance results of risk management. System Dynamics shows to be very effective in evaluating interaction effect of different incidental scenarios properly identified through risk analysis technique used. System Dynamics modelling permits simulation through changes in time and feedback mechanism. This approach has been validated via testing in a plastic molding plant with a scenario of risk of a massive fire.