Future Milk Production Prospects in India for Various Animal Species using Time Series Models

Abstract

Background: The Indian dairy industry is contributing significantly to the country’s economic growth. Since the variations in milk production will be a huge matter for dairy products as well as for farmers, investors and policymakers in the country, an accurate forecast of milk production is extremely very important. Methods: This study represents an ARIMA modelling approach for forecasting the milk production in India and milk production by five major milk producing animal species namely, Cow, Buffalo, Goat, Sheep and Camel by using annual data from 1961 to 2018. ARIMA (0,2,1) model was selected as the best model in forecasting milk production in India. Result: There will be an increment in the overall milk production in India according to the study. Further, there will be an increase in buffalo, cow and goat milk production while a decrease in milk production by camels and sheep.