Analysis of the Consequences of Agricultural Policies on the Cropping Pattern of Agricultural Products and Employment in Afghanistan

Abstract

The discussion of employment and its complications in the world has attracted the attention of many politicians, government officials, and experts. Creating sustainable employment and revenue is the most important way to create economic and social welfare in all human societies. Thus, in developing countries, management policies to support producers’ revenue in the agricultural sector and increase employment in this area are considered as the main development goals for them. However, the current research used the positive mathematical programming (PMP) approach and then evaluated the economic consequences of changing the cropping pattern, especially evaluating the level of employment of the labor. Accordingly, the simulated scenarios include price variation of selected agricultural products (PMP1), Yield variation of selected agricultural products (PMP2), Change in the consumption of chemical fertilizers (PMP3), change in the consumption of pesticides (PMP4), change in the consumption of irrigation water (PMP5) and the combination of the mentioned scenarios (PMP6). The study Model was done by responding to 928 questionnaires from 16 districts in Nangarhar province, AFG. The investigators recorded and classified the data in Excel software and the analysis was done with the GAMS software. Finally, by applying the integrated model (PMP6), a suitable result is established between the policies and the amount of gross profit increases by 83 million Afghanis (1.06 percent), and the amount of employment decreases by only 391 thousand people (4.35 percent). Besides, in this model, the consumption of chemical fertilizers is 1.15%, the consumption of agricultural pesticides is 0.49%, and the consumption of irrigation water is 2.95% less than the current model of the province. According to the findings of this research, all the products under review have price elasticity lower than one.