Fitting ARIMA Model and Forecasting for the Tea Production, and Internal Consumption of Tea (Per year) and Export of Tea

Abstract

Every year, in Bangladesh the production has increased by 1.84 % and contributes 1.37 in export in the word tea trade and earns nearing 1775 million Taka. The internal consumers of the country are presently consuming about 98% of its produce. The consumption is increasing day by day mainly due to the rapid increase in population. This study considered the published secondary data of yearly tea production in Bangladesh over the period 1990 to 2015 by the Bangladesh Tea Board. We are forecasting the production of tea and internal consumption of tea by using Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) for the next 5 years. Run test, Jarque and Bera test criteria are used for the adequacy of the fitted model which followed by the residual analysis. The comparison between the original series and forecasted series are showing the same trends which indicate the fitted model is statistically well and appropriate for the forecast the productions of tea in Bangladesh.