DÜNYA TİCARET BELİRSİZLİĞİNİN ULUSLARARASI TİCARETE ETKİSİ: TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİ ÖRNEĞİ

Abstract

International trade can be affected by various economic events, including domestic and global developments, such as economic crises, exchange rate volatilities, natural resource explorations, and globalization. In addition, trade uncertainty is an important factor that affects the trade volume of an economy. Recently, trade uncertainty has increased episodically in the world with trade wars between the US and China, and this uncertainty has spilled over to other countries, thereby affecting trade volumes. This study attempts to understand and explain the role of World Trade Uncertainty (WTU) on both export and import in the Turkish economy for the period from 1998:Q1 to 2021:Q4. Therefore, this study utilizes the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds test. The research findings presented here reveal that there is a long-run nexus between the variables in both models. The results also show that an increase in WTU negatively affects export, while it has no statistically significant effect on Turkish import for the period examined.