Trends in the development of the organic agriculture market: Foreign and Russian experience

Abstract

Subject. We investigate trends in the development of the organic agriculture market in the world and in Russia. Objectives. The purpose is to explore the condition of the organic products market worldwide and in Russia. Methods. The study rests on statistical data published by the National Organic Union of Russia and the Research Institute of Organic Agriculture (FiBL). We applied statistical methods of data processing and the ‘Deductor’ program to perform the development analysis. Results. We conducted the statistical analysis of the market growth prospects based on the growth period from 2012 to 2022, using the correlation analysis and considering the smoothing of peaks with the help of Deductor software. We found that, all other things being equal, no external changes (an increase in investment volume, the number of manufacturers, etc.), there was a downward trend in the market due to a fairly small number of certified manufacturers. As a result, the market cannot show sustainable growth and entry into the international economic arena. To develop organic agriculture production in Russia, both private investments and government support measures are needed. Conclusions. Over the past 20 years, the global market of organic agriculture products has demonstrated a steady growth. If a resource base and systems of legal and State regulation are available, Russia has a huge potential and prospects to become one of prominent players in this market. Despite the difficulties, since 2012, the Russian organic market has been showing sustained growth.