Spatiotemporal analysis of determinants of trends in consumption of paid services by the population (the Federal Districts of the Russian Federation case)

Abstract

Subject. The article deals with identification and quantification of the impact of economic and social factors on the consumption of charged services by the population at the meso-level. Objectives. The purpose is to unveil and analyze the differentiation of the influence of macroeconomic factors on the index of physical volume of consumption of paid services by the population. Methods. The study employs econometric approach to analyze official statistics data. Using panel data models, we analyze individual effects and the nature of relationships between factors by federal district. Results. The COVID-19 epidemic seriously reduced the real volume of consumption of fee-based services in 2020, however, next year, the per capita consumption of the said services returned to the pre-COVID trend. For econometric calculations, we selected the industrial production index, unemployment rate, real monetary incomes, and consumer price index as factors influencing the index of actual volume of paid services. Based on the models of fixed, random effects and the pool model, we investigated differences in the consumption of paid services by the population by federal district. Conclusions. The analysis of specifications of panel data models enabled to conclude that the factors selected for the study have a similar effect in all federal districts. With the industrial production index and the consumer price index growth, the index of physical volume of paid services increases. The rising unemployment has the opposite effect on the consumption of paid services.