Understanding the theoretical and methodological background to the demographic prediction process-Reference-Cited by-同舟云学术

Understanding the theoretical and methodological background to the demographic prediction process

Published:2022-06-15 Issue:6 Volume:20 Page:1164-1189
ISSN:2073-1477
Container-title:Regional Economics: Theory and Practice
language:
Short-container-title:RETP

Author:

SMIRENNIKOVA Elena V.¹^ORCID,UKHANOVA Anna V.¹^ORCID

Affiliation:

1. N. Laverov Federal Center for Integrated Arctic Research, Ural Branch of RAS (FCIARctic UrB RAS)

Abstract

Subject. This article considers forecasting as one of the most important foundations of the State and municipal management system. Objectives. The article aims to systematize the theoretical foundations of population forecast. Methods. For the study, we used the general scientific and statistical analysis research methods. Results. The article offers the most complete classification of demographic projections depending on the criteria of time, space, forecasting goals, and influencing factors. It groups important factors affecting demographic development and the quality of population forecasts, and it presents an algorithm for developing a demographic prediction. Conclusions. Selecting a region for which demographic predictions are planned to be made acquires particular relevance in line with the concept of geodemographic ensemble.

Publisher

Publishing House Finance and Credit

Subject

General Medicine

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