Methodology for assessing the efficiency of public financing of national projects on the basis of cluster analysis

Abstract

Subject. Increased external challenges and threats slow down the growth rate of gross domestic product as a basic source of financial resources for the development of the State. The key to improving the living standards is to enhance the mechanism of capital redistribution within national projects implementation, given the need for balance and existing imbalances in the development of Russian regions. Objectives. The aim of the study is to develop methodological tools for assessing the effectiveness of State financing of national projects, based on cluster analysis as a modern tool to identifying groups of regions according to specified variables, which include targets and financial indicators for national projects implementation. Methods. We applied methods of cluster analysis and mathematical statistics, to form groups of Russian regions with different levels of socio-economic efficiency and financial risks of national projects execution. To divide regions into clusters, considering their internal homogeneity and external heterogeneity, we developed indices of centralization of financing and achievement of targets of national projects, which were used as variables. Results. The offered methodology contributes to the development of scientific approaches to financial analysis and forecasting in the field of socio-economic development of Russian regions and the country as a whole. Its practical implementation enables to assess the likelihood of successful implementation of national projects in Russian regions and shape a flexible State policy for financing national projects. Conclusions. The study confirmed prospects for using cluster analysis to assess the effectiveness of State financing of national projects and established that the amount of financing of national projects is not a determining factor in the effectiveness of their implementation.