A Multi-Scale Climate Vulnerability and Risk Assesment (C-VRA) Methodology for Corporate Scale Investments: West Bank-Palestine Case Study

Abstract

Assessing climate vulnerability and risk has become a critical part of feasibility studies for infrastructure investments due to the increased frequency and severity of atmospheric disasters. However, evaluating climate parameters and disturbances can become challenging in vulnerable regions, such as the dry Mediterranean terrain. This is why climate vulnerability and risk assessment (C-VRA) should cover several parameters and factors besides climate analysis. In our case, the political stress and conflicts between Palestine and Israel settlements in the West Bank add additional risks and vulnerabilities. Our paper presents a C-VRA in the Nabi Saleh Village-West Bank of Palestine, where a dairy factory with a wastewater treatment plant will be built. The factory is estimated to use around 120 m3 of water daily and produce wastewater that will be treated and reused for agricultural irrigation. Unfortunately, the current practice in the region is to use untreated wastewater to irrigate trees and vegetables without restraint since the treatment capacity is low, and a large part of the wastewater is discharged untreated into the streams. The dairy factory is planned on a ridge at the upper watershed (headwater) of the 1795.04 km2 Yarkon Rive r basin. The local communities in the region are vulnerable to climate change impacts and related atmospheric disasters due to poverty, agriculture dependency, and political issues. To evaluate future climate projections, we used the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report 6 (IPCC AR6) methodology. We also used the Mann-Kendal test to analyze the historical trend of climate parameters and projections for three scenarios (optimistic, moderate, and pessimistic) of AR6 for a future period until 2080, considering the life span of the investments and water-specific physical climate risks. Results showed that the historical temperature had a statistically significant increasing trend projected to continue in the next 60 years. Additionally, according to all three scenarios, the precipitation in the region will decrease in the coming decades. As a result, we identified one high (water scarcity) and two moderate-level risks (rainfall decrease and drought) for the corporate, all related to water security. Our methodology incorporates basin-scale assessments with regional and local vulnerabilities, making it a potential tool for critical infrastructure investments elsewhere.