COVID-19 Modelling: The Effects of Social Distancing

Abstract

The purpose of this article is to reach all those who find it difficult to become well informed about the steps that have been implemented to tackle the COVID-19 pandemic and to spark discussion and thought. Here, we use simple stochastic simulations to evaluate different approaches taken to manage the crisis. We then compare these results with updated data of what really happened in the UK and in South Africa. The initial simulations aligned well with how the pandemic has evolved throughout five months following lockdown. The models are, as expected, not fully accurate, but exact enough to be used as a guideline to the evolution of the disease in both high- and middle-income countries. This is shown through simulations formed by an open source code, which allows evaluation of the outcomes from different intervention scenarios or conditions.