The Analysis of the Incidence Rate of the COVID-19 Pandemic Based on Segmented Regression for Kuwait and Saudi Arabia

Abstract

Since the initial detection of the novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China, at the end of 2019, the virus has spread rapidly worldwide and has become a global health threat. Due to rising infections, it has a significant impact on society as well as the economy. Although vaccines and treatment are available now, there is a need to control the pandemic's spread by appropriate strategies and policies. This study evaluates incidence such as positive rates and mortality rates through breakpoints, which were not undertaken in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. In this regard, we have two-fold objectives: (1) to forecast the cumulative confirmed cases and death cases and (2) to compute the incidence rate within two consecutive days and evaluate the forecasted periods. The autoregressive integrated moving average model is used to forecast the cumulative confirmed cases and death cases for two months. The segmented regression model is used to split the pandemic time series into six periods and compute the incidence rate. Our results show that cumulative confirmed cases will reach 335733 in Kuwait and 445805 in Saudi Arabia by the beginning of June 2021. The cumulative death cases will reach 1830 and 7283 in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, respectively. However, the positive rate will increase during the forecasted period in both countries, while the death rate will decrease in Kuwait and increase in Saudi Arabia. The study results can help public health organizations and decision-makers to control the spread of infectious diseases.