Long-Term Rainfall Variability and Trends for Climate Risk Management in the Summer Monsoon Region of Southeast Asia

Abstract

This study presents an analysis of long-term rainfall variability and trends in the summer monsoon region of Southeast Asia, encompassing Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Lao PDR), Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, and Myanmar, as well as their respective river basins. Utilizing Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station Data (CHIRPS) having a spatial resolution of 5 km spanning from 1981 to 2021, rainfall variability and trends were examined. Data preprocessing and geospatial analysis were conducted using R-Studio and ArcGIS software. The Mann–Kendall (MK) test and Sen’s slope estimator were employed for annual and seasonal rainfall trend analysis. Myanmar exhibited the highest average annual rainfall of 2137 mm during the study period, while Thailand had the lowest (1641 mm). Over the past four decades, the Peninsula Malaysian Basin experienced the highest average annual rainfall (2691 mm), whereas the Chao Praya Basin recorded the lowest (1311 mm). Increasing trends in rainfall were observed across all five countries and nine major river basins. Vietnam displayed the highest annual rainfall trend of 5.63 mm/year, while Lao PDR exhibited the lowest trend (3.16 mm/year). Among the river basins, the Chao Phraya Basin demonstrated the maximum annual rainfall trend (11.21 mm/year), while the Peninsula Malaysia Basin had the minimum trend (1.21 mm/year). These findings could significantly contribute to climate change monitoring in the region and can aid policymakers in sectors such as agriculture, urban planning, and disaster management.