ABCD3-I and ABCD2 Scores in a TIA Population with Low Stroke Risk

Abstract

Objectives. We aimed to evaluate the ABCD3-I score and compare it with the ABCD2 score in short- (1 week) and long-term (3 months; 1 year) stroke risk prediction in our post-TIA stroke risk study, MIDNOR TIA. Materials and Methods. We performed a prospective, multicenter study in Central Norway from 2012 to 2015, enrolling 577 patients with TIA. In a subset of patients with complete data for both scores ( $n=305$ ), we calculated the AUC statistics of the ABCD3-I score and compared this with the ABCD2 score. A telephone follow-up and registry data were used for assessing stroke occurrence. Results. Within 1 week, 3 months, and 1 year, 1.0% ( $n=3$ ), 3.3% ( $n=10$ ), and 5.2% ( $n=16$ ) experienced a stroke, respectively. The AUCs for the ABCD3-I score were 0.72 (95% CI, 0.54 to 0.89) at 1 week, 0.66 (95% CI, 0.53 to 0.80) at 3 months, and 0.68 (0.95% CI, 0.56 to 0.79) at 1 year. The corresponding AUCs for the ABCD2 score were 0.55 (95% CI, 0.24 to 0.86), 0.55 (95% CI, 0.42 to 0.68), and 0.63 (95% CI, 0.50 to 0.76). Conclusions. The ABCD3-I score had limited value in a short-term prediction of subsequent stroke after TIA and did not reliably discriminate between low- and high-risk patients in a long-term follow-up. The ABCD2 score did not predict subsequent stroke accurately at any time point. Since there is a generally lower stroke risk after TIA during the last years, the benefit of these clinical risk scores and their role in TIA management seems limited. Clinical Trial Registration. This trial is registered with NCT02038725 (retrospectively registered, January 16, 2014).