Identification and Validation of a Novel Prognostic Gene Model for Colorectal Cancer

Abstract

Aims. Colon cancer (CRC), with high morbidity and mortality, is a common and highly malignant cancer, which always has a bad prognosis. So it is urgent to employ a reasonable manner to assess the prognosis of patients. We developed and validated a gene model for predicting CRC risk. Methods. The Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) database was used to extract the gene expression profiles of CRC patients ( $N=181$ ) from GEO to identify genes that were differentially expressed between CRC patients and controls and then stable signature genes by firstly using both robust likelihood-based modeling with 1000 iterations and random survival forest variable hunting algorithms. Cluster analysis using the longest distance method was drawn out, and Kaplan–Meier (KM) survival analysis was used to compare the clusters. Meanwhile, the risk score was evaluated in three independent datasets including the GEO and Illumina HiSeq sequencing platforms. The corresponding risk index was calculated, and samples were clustered into high- and low-risk groups according to the median. And survival ROC analysis was used to evaluate the prognostic model. Finally, the Gene Set Enrichment Analysis (GSEA) was performed for further functional enrichment analyses. Results. A 10-gene model was obtained, including 7 negative impact factors (SLC39A14, AACS, ERP29, LAMP3, TMEM106C, TMED2, and SLC25A3) and 3 positive ones (CNPY2, GRB10, and PBK), which related with several important oncogenic pathways (KRAS signaling, TNF-α signaling pathway, and WNT signaling pathway) and several cancer-related cellular processes (epithelial mesenchymal transition and cellular apoptosis). By using colon cancer datasets from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA), the model was validated in KM survival analysis ( $P\le 0.001$ ) and significant analysis with recurrence time ( $P=0.0018$ ). Conclusions. This study firstly developed a stable and effective 10-gene model by using novel combined methods, and CRC patients might be able to use it as a prognostic marker for predicting their survival and monitoring their long-term treatment.