Bayesian Analysis of Cancer Data Using a 4-Component Exponential Mixture Model

Abstract

Cancer is among the major public health problems as well as a burden for Pakistan. About 148,000 new patients are diagnosed with cancer each year, and almost 100,000 patients die due to this fatal disease. Lung, breast, liver, cervical, blood/bone marrow, and oral cancers are the most common cancers in Pakistan. Perhaps smoking, physical inactivity, infections, exposure to toxins, and unhealthy diet are the main factors responsible for the spread of cancer. We preferred a novel four-component mixture model under Bayesian estimation to estimate the average number of incidences and death of both genders in different age groups. For this purpose, we considered 28 different kinds of cancers diagnosed in recent years. Data of registered patients all over Pakistan in the year 2012 were taken from GLOBOCAN. All the patients were divided into 4 age groups and also split based on genders to be applied to the proposed mixture model. Bayesian analysis is performed on the data using a four-component exponential mixture model. Estimators for mixture model parameters are derived under Bayesian procedures using three different priors and two loss functions. Simulation study and graphical representation for the estimates are also presented. It is noted from analysis of real data that the Bayes estimates under LINEX loss assuming Jeffreys’ prior is more efficient for the no. of incidences in male and female. As far as no. of deaths are concerned again, LINEX loss assuming Jeffreys’ prior gives better results for the male population, but for the female population, the best loss function is SELF assuming Jeffreys’ prior.