Binary Logistic Regression Modeling of Idle CO Emissions in Order to Estimate Predictors Influences in Old Vehicle Park

Abstract

This paper determines, by experiments, the CO emissions at idle running with 1,785 vehicles powered by spark ignition engine, in order to verify the correctness of emissions values with a representative sample of vehicles in Serbia. The permissible emissions limits were considered for three (3) fitted binary logistic regression (BLR) models, and the key reason for such analysis is finding the predictors that can have a crucial influence on the accuracy of the estimation whether such vehicles have correct emissions or not. Having summarized the research results, we found out that vehicles produced in Serbia (hereinafter referred to as “domestic vehicles”) cause more pollution than imported cars (hereinafter referred to as “foreign vehicles”), although domestic vehicles are of lower average age and mileage. Another trend was observed: low-power vehicles and vehicles produced before 1992 are potentially more serious polluters.