Global Risk Assessment of the Occurrence of Bovine Lumpy Skin Disease: Based on an Ecological Niche Model

Abstract

Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is a highly contagious disease in bovine animals. An outbreak of LSD can cause devastating economic losses to the cattle industry. To investigate the distribution characteristics of historical LSD epidemics, LSD was divided into four phases for directional distribution analysis based on trends in epidemic prevalence. Ecological niche models were developed for LSD as well as for two vectors (Stomoxys calcitrans and Aedes aegypti), and global predictive maps were generated for the probability of LSD occurrence and the potential distribution of the two LSD vectors. The models had good predictive performance (the AUC values were 0.894 for the LSD model, 0.911 for the S. calcitrans model, and 0.950 for the A. aegypti model). The LSD combined vector prediction map was generated by combining the distribution maps of Stomoxys calcitrans and Aedes aegyptiwith fuzzy overlay tool in ArcGIS. The LSD combined vector prediction map was combined with the LSD prediction map to generate the LSD vector transmission risk map. The eastern and northwestern regions of North America, the eastern and northern regions of South America, the central and southern regions of Africa, the southern region of Europe, the northwestern and southeastern regions of Asia, and the eastern region of Australia were predicted to provide suitable environmental conditions for the occurrence of LSD. Cattle density, buffalo density, and bio2 (mean diurnal range) were identified as key variables for the occurrence of LSD. The findings of this study can be useful to policymakers in developing and implementing preventive measures of LSD for the health of cattle and the cattle industry.