A Two-Stage Train Delay Prediction Method Based on Data Smoothing and Multimodel Fusion Using Asymmetry Features in Urban Rail Systems

Abstract

During the operation of urban rail transit trains, train delays have a great negative impact on subway safety and operation management. It is caused by various external environmental disturbances or internal equipment failures. In order to better grasp the situation of train delays, adjust train operation schedules in time, and improve the quality of rail transit command and transportation services, this paper proposes a two-stage train delay prediction method based on data smoothing and multimodel fusion. In the first stage, the Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) method is used to smooth the train operation data, and the smoothed components and residual components are extracted. In the second stage, we use different machine learning methods to train the smoothed data and use the $K$ -nearest neighbor (KNN) method to fuse different trainers. Finally, the predicted values of the smoothed and residual components are combined to improve the overall performance of the train delay prediction model, especially under asymmetry features. The research results show that the prediction accuracy of the two-stage train delay prediction method based on KNN multimodel fusion is significantly better than that of the independent machine learning model.