Medium-Term Earthquake Forecast Using Gravity Monitoring Data: Evidence from the Yutian and Wenchuan Earthquakes in China

Abstract

Gravity changes derived from regional gravity monitoring data in China from 1998 to 2005 exhibited noticeable variations before the occurrence of two large earthquakes in 2008 in China—the 2008 Yutian (Xinjiang)Ms=7.3earthquake and the 2008 Wenchuan (Sichuan)Ms=8.0earthquake. Based on these gravity variations, a group of researchers at the Second Crust Monitoring and Application Center of China Earthquake Administration made a suggestion in December of 2006 that the possibility for the Yutian (Xinjiang) and Wenchuan (Sichuan) areas to experience a large earthquake in either 2007 or 2008 was high. We review the gravity monitoring data and methods upon which the researchers reached these medium-term earthquake forecasts. Experience related to the medium-term forecasts of the Yutian and Wenchuan earthquakes suggests that gravity changes derived from regional gravity monitoring data could potentially be a useful medium-term precursor of large earthquakes, but significant additional research is needed to validate and evaluate this hypothesis.