Affinity Coefficient for Clustering Autoregressive Moving Average Models

Abstract

In various fields, such as economics, finance, bioinformatics, geology, and medicine, namely, in the cases of electroencephalogram, electrocardiogram, and biotechnology, cluster analysis of time series is necessary. The first step in cluster applications is to establish a similarity/dissimilarity coefficient between time series. This article introduces an extension of the affinity coefficient for the autoregressive expansions of the invertible autoregressive moving average models to measure their similarity between them. An application of the affinity coefficient between time series was developed and implemented in R. Cluster analysis is performed with the corresponding distance for the estimated simulated autoregressive moving average of order one. The primary findings indicate that processes with similar forecast functions are grouped (in the same cluster) as expected concerning the affinity coefficient. It was also possible to conclude that this affinity coefficient is very sensitive to the behavior changes of the forecast functions: processes with small different forecast functions appear to be well separated in different clusters. Moreover, if the two processes have at least an infinite number of π- weights with a symmetric signal, the affinity value is also symmetric.