Distribution and Risk Factors of Water-Related Accidents for General Aviation Aircraft

Abstract

In the past two decades, dozens to more than a hundred people have died each year in water-related accidents, most of which general aviation has accounted for. To identify the distribution and risk factors of fatal water-related accidents for general aviation aircraft, a total of 594 water-related accidents according to 14 CFR Part 91 from 2009 to 2019 were chosen from the National Transportation Safety Board’s online database. A two-step approach, consisting of a univariable logistic regression and a multivariable logistic regression, was performed to estimate the effects of 28 parameters. Results show that aircraft with a rated power of more than 100 horsepower ( $\text{odds}\text{ratio}>5$ ), instrument conditions ( $\text{odds}\text{ratio}=25.585$ ), flying night operations ( $\text{odds}\text{ratio}=3.717$ ), and cruise phase ( $\text{odds}\text{ratio}=11.699$ ) possessed an elevated risk for a fatal outcome. This research is the first to identify the distribution and risk factors of fatal water-related accidents under 14 CFR Part 91. The necessity and importance of survival equipment for water-related accidents are also highlighted in this paper.