Risk Factors for Acute Coronary Syndrome in Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding Patients

Abstract

Background. Upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) is a common critical disease with a certain fatality rate. Acute coronary syndrome (ACS), another critical ill condition, is a regular occurrence in the UGIB. We identified risk factors for ACS in UGIB. Methods. 676 patients diagnosed with UGIB were enrolled retrospectively. We assessed the occurrence of ACS in UGIB patients and identified the risk factors for ACS by logistic regression analysis and random forest analysis. Results. After propensity score matching (PSM), the ACS group ( $n=69$ ) and non-ACS group ( $n=276$ ) were analyzed. Logistic regression analysis showed that syncope ( $P=0.001$ ), coronary heart disease history ( $P=0.001$ ), Glasgow Blatchford score ( $P\le 0.001$ ), Rockall risk score ( $P=0.004$ ), red blood cell distribution width (RDW) ( $P\le 0.001$ ), total bilirubin (TBil) ( $P=0.046$ ), fibrinogen ( $P\le 0.001$ ), and hemoglobin ( $P=0.001$ ) had important roles in ACS patients. With Mean Decrease Gini (MDG) sequencing, fibrinogen, RDW, and hemoglobin were ranked the top three risk factors associated with ACS. In ROC analysis, fibrinogen ( $\text{AUC}=0.841$ , 95% CI: 0.779-0.903) and RDW ( $\text{AUC}=0.826$ , 95% CI: 0.769-0.883) obtained good discrimination performance. According to $\text{sensitivity}>80$ %, the pAUC of fibrinogen and RDW were 0.077 and 0.101, respectively, and there was no significant difference ( $P=0.326$ ). However, according to $\text{specificity}>80$ %, the pAUC of fibrinogen was higher than that of RDW (0.126 vs. 0.088, $P=0.018$ ). Conclusion. Fibrinogen and RDW were important risk factors for ACS in UGIB. Additionally, combination with coronary heart disease, syncope, hemoglobin, and TBil played important roles in the occurrence of ACS. Meanwhile, it was also noted that Rockall score and Glasgow Blatchford score should be performed to predict the risk.