Construction and Validation of a Recurrent Risk Nomogram Model for Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer within 1 Year after Radical Resection

Abstract

Objective. To explore the risk factors of recurrence within 1 year after radical resection of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and construct the nomogram model. Methods. The clinical data of 186 patients with NSCLC treated with radical surgery in Affiliated Hospital of Youjiang Medical University for Nationalities of Baise were retrospectively analyzed. Multivariate logistic regression was applied to analyze the risk factors of recurrence within 1 year after radical resection of NSCLC. The R language (R 4.0.3 software package) was used in constructing the nomogram model, and the predictive value of the model was evaluated. Results. The recurrence rate of 186 patients within 1 year after radical surgery was 29.57%. After multivariate logistic regression analysis, pathological stage, number of lymph node metastasis, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), postoperative plasma D-dimer, and carcinoembryonic antigen were independent factors for recurrence within 1 year after radical resection of NSCLC ( $P<0.05$ ). Based on the above independent risk factors, a nomogram model was established, with the distinction of AUC = 0.891 (95% CI: 0.819–0.964) and sensitivity and specificity of 70.3% and 97.8%, respectively. The calibration curve was close to the ideal curve. External validation of the model showed AUC = 0.801 (95% CI: 0.674–0.928), and sensitivity and specificity were 66.7% and 84.2%, respectively. Conclusion. The recurrence of NSCLC within 1 year after radical surgery was related to a variety of factors, and the nomogram model constructed based on risk factors had good goodness of fit, calibration, consistency of prediction, and prediction efficiency.