Statistical Analysis of the COVID-19 Mortality Rates with Probability Distributions: The Case of Pakistan and Afghanistan

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has shocked nations due to its exponential death rates in various countries. According to the United Nations (UN), in Russia, there were 895, in Mexico 303, in Indonesia 77, in Ukraine 317, and in Romania 252, and in Pakistan, 54 new deaths were recorded on the 5th of October 2021 in the period of months. Hence, it is essential to study the future waves of this virus so that some preventive measures can be adopted. In statistics, under uncertainty, there is a possibility to use probability models that leads to defining future pattern of deaths caused by COVID-19. Based on probability models, many research studies have been conducted to model the future trend of a particular disease and explore the effect of possible treatments (as in the case of coronavirus, the effect of Pfizer, Sinopharm, CanSino, Sinovac, and Sputnik) towards a specific disease. In this paper, varieties of probability models have been applied to model the COVID-19 death rate more effectively than the other models. Among others, exponentiated flexible exponential Weibull (EFEW) distribution is pointed out as the best fitted model. Various statistical properties have been presented in addition to real-life applications by using the total deaths of the COVID-19 outbreak (in millions) in Pakistan and Afghanistan. It has been verified that EFEW leads to a better decision rather than other existing lifetime models, including FEW, W, EW, E, AIFW, and GAPW distributions.