Exploring the Risk Factors of Conjunctival Squamous Cell Carcinoma and Establishing a Prognostic Model: Retrospective Study

Abstract

Objective. Exploring the risk factors of conjunctival squamous cell carcinoma (CSCC) and establishing a prognostic model. Methods. Information on patients with CSCC was extracted from the SEER database, conducting a retrospective study. 650 patients with CSCC were finally included in the model. Descriptive analysis was performed by Chi-square test and $T$ -test. The risk factors of CSCC were explored by COX multivariate analysis, and the corresponding prognostic model was established as a result. Results. The all-cause mortality rate of CSCC was 38.3%, and the risk factors were age ( $\text{HR}=1.077$ ), sex ( $\text{HR}=0.691$ ), grade ( $\text{HR}=7.857$ ), laterality ( $\text{HR}=1.403$ ), N ( $\text{HR}=7.195$ ), M ( $\text{HR}=0.217$ ), and surgery ( $\text{HR}=1.618$ ), all $P<0.05$ . The new model had C index and area under curve ROC (AUC) value greater than 0.7. Calibration curve, Net Reclassification Index (NRI), Integrated Discrimination Improvement (IDI), and Decision Curve Analysis (DCA) indicate the new model has better predictive performance than the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC-TNM). Conclusions. Compared with the clinical guidance of AJCC (TNM) for patients with CSCC, the established model exhibits good performance and can provide guidance for clinical decision-making.