Simulating Intraurban Land Use Dynamics under Multiple Scenarios Based on Fuzzy Cellular Automata: A Case Study of Jinzhou District, Dalian

Abstract

The spatial evolution of land use in Jinzhou area was simulated using fuzzy cellular automata to determine all factors influencing urban land use change. For this purpose, land use data of multiple sources and remote sensing images from 2003 to 2015 were analyzed. The following results were obtained: (1) real land use data and simulation data for 2015 were tested using four indices. Under the 5 m × 5 m scale, the model shows good performance for simulation of areas with various land use types. (2) Among simulations under four scenarios, the effect of traffic guidance on the development of construction land was more distinct under the economic development mode, which clearly showed the phenomenon of “agglomeration” along major traffic lines. (3) Jinshitan Street is adjacent to the sea, and land use changes are significant under the 4th scenario, and thus related departments should pay more attention. (4) Shortcomings of conventional cellular automata model in processing complex systems could be mitigated through the integration of fuzzy sets.