Social Stability Risk Diffusion of Large Complex Engineering Projects Based on an Improved SIR Model: A Simulation Research on Complex Networks

Abstract

The development of China’s new urbanization has driven the rapid increase in large complex engineering projects, which have the characteristics of large-scale investment, long-term construction, and wide social influence, easily causing benefit conflicts among relevant stakeholders, and breaking out social stability risks. In the previous research, the risks of large complex engineering projects mainly concentrated on the assessment of economic risk, schedule risk, etc. However, there were few studies on social risks, and they did not consider how the risks spread on the complex networks based on the social connections such as interpersonal relationship. From the subject of social stability risk diffusion of large complex engineering projects, this paper constructs a related risk diffusion model based on the SIR model to analyze risk diffusion mechanism. Through NetLogo simulation platform, the model is placed under a small-world network environment that is closest to the topology structure of real social interpersonal relationship network for simulation research, aiming to find out key factors of social stability risk intervention for large complex engineering projects, which greatly contributes to the social stability risk management of large complex engineering projects.