Risk Score for Prediction of Acute Kidney Injury in Patients with Acute ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction

Abstract

Background. Acute kidney injury (AKI) is an important comorbidity of ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction (STEMI) and worsens the prognosis. The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between clinical data, test results, surgical findings, and AKI in STEMI patients and to develop a simple, practical model for predicting the risk of AKI. Method. Prognostic prediction research with clinical risk score development was conducted. The data used for model development was derived from the database of the Henan Province Cardiovascular Disease Clinical Data and Sample Resource Bank Engineering Research Center. The data used for external validation was derived from the China Chest Pain Center database. The study endpoint was defined as the occurrence of AKI. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify independent predictors of AKI. Logistic coefficients of each predictor were used for score weighting and transformation. The predictive performance of the newly derived risk scores was validated, respectively, by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) regression in the development population and the external validation population. Result. A total of 364 patients, 57 (15.6%) with AKI and 307 (84.4%) without AKI, were included for score derivation. The validation crowd includes 88 STEMI patients in different institutions. A total of 11 potential predictors were explored under the multivariable logistic regression model. The new risk score was based on five final predictors which were $\text{age}>72\text{years}$ , ejection fraction of no more than 40%, $\text{baseline}\text{serum}\text{creatinine}>102.7\text{mmol}/\text{L}$ , $\text{red}\text{blood}\text{cell}\text{distribution}\text{width}>13.15,$ and culprit lesion located in the middistal segment. With only five predictor variables, the score predicted the risk of AKI with the effective discriminative ability (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AuROC): 0.721, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.652-0.790). In the external validation, the newly developed score confirmed a similar discrimination as the crowd used for derivation (AuROC: 0.731, 95% CI: 0.624-0.838). Conclusion. The newly developed score was proved to have good predictive performance and could be practically applied for risk stratification of AKI in STEMI patients.