2019-nCoV Transmission in Hubei Province, China: Stochastic and Deterministic Analyses

Abstract

Currently, a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) causes an outbreak of viral pneumonia in Hubei province, China. In this paper, stochastic and deterministic models are proposed to investigate the transmission mechanism of 2019-nCoV from 15 January to 5 February 2020 in Hubei province. For the deterministic model, basic reproduction number R0 is defined and endemic equilibrium is given. Under R0>1, quasi-stationary distribution of the stochastic process is approximated by Gaussian diffusion. Residual, sensitivity, dynamical, and diffusion analyses of the models are conducted. Further, control variables are introduced to the deterministic model and optimal strategies are provided. Based on empirical results, we suggest that the first and most important thing is to control input, screening, treatment, and isolation.