Application of HMC-SS Method in Pipeline Reliability Analysis and Residual Life Assessment

Abstract

In this paper, the reliability analysis and residual life assessment model of gas pipelines with multiple corrosion pits are established. Aiming at the simulation evaluation of small failure probability of gas pipelines, a new method for reliability analysis and residual life assessment of gas pipelines with multiple internal corrosion pits is proposed, which is called the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo subset simulation (HMC-SS) method. Compared with the traditional MCS (Monte Carlo simulation) algorithm, the HMC-SS method has the advantages of less sampling, low cost, and high accuracy. And compared with the random walk SS method, the HMC-SS method can analyze the state space more efficiently and achieve faster convergence. In this paper, the HMC-SS method is applied to the reliability analysis and residual life assessment of gas pipeline engineering, and the sensitivity analysis of the random parameters affecting the failure probability of the pipeline is carried out. The results show that the corrosion rate, the depth of corrosion defects, and the wall thickness of the pipeline have great influence on the residual life of the pipeline, while the yield strength, working pressure, and the length of corrosion pits have no obvious influence on the failure probability and residual life of the pipeline. The analysis shows that the proposed HMC-SS method can be used as a reasonable tool for failure assessment of natural gas pipelines affected by corrosion to determine the remaining life of the pipeline system. This method provides a reliable theoretical basis for the integrity management of the gas pipeline.