Affiliation:
1. School of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, Changsha University of Science and Technology, 960 Wanjiali S. Rd., Changsha, Hunan Province 410004, China
2. State Engineering Laboratory of Highway Maintenance Technology, Changsha University of Science & Technology, Changsha, Hunan Province 410004, China
3. Co-Innovation Center for Advanced Construction and Maintenance Technology of Modem Transportation Infrastructural Facility, Changsha, Hunan Province 410004, China
Abstract
Due to the uncertainty and variability of various factors affecting the pavement performance, the change in pavement performance cannot be completely determined. In addition, this uncertainty is not accurately reflected by the pavement performance prediction model. In particular, the gray GM (1, 1) model is very suitable due to it is ability to better predict the existing situation of a domestic asphalt pavement along with the actual performance of a road surface of the “small sample, poor information” gray system. In this regard, the gray GM (1, 1) model is being increasingly used to forecast the performance of an asphalt pavement. When a gray GM (1, 1) model is used to predict the performance of an asphalt pavement, the condition number of the GM (1, 1) model matrix is too large, which, in turn, leads to the deviation of calculation and even wrong results in some cases. This study analyzed the reason for a large condition number of the GM (1, 1) model matrix. Combined with the numerical characteristics of the pavement condition index (PCI) and pavement quality index (PQI), this study focused on the annual, monthly, and daily attenuations of PCI and PQI to the condition number of the GM (1, 1) model matrix. Accordingly, we propose a method to forecast the performance of an asphalt pavement using the monthly attenuation of PCI and PQI. The PCI and PQI in Hunan Province in recent years have been predicted, and the findings reveal that the prediction GM (1, 1) model for the monthly attenuation of PCI and PQI not only effectively lowered the condition number of the matrix but also ensured that the relative error was small.
Funder
National Key Research and Development Program of China
Subject
Civil and Structural Engineering
Cited by
5 articles.
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