A Threat Assessment Model under Uncertain Environment

Abstract

Threat evaluation is extremely important to decision makers in many situations, such as military application and physical protection systems. In this paper, a new threat assessment model based on interval number to deal with the intrinsic uncertainty and imprecision in combat environment is proposed. Both objective and subjective factors are taken into consideration in the proposed model. For the objective factors, the genetic algorithm (GA) is used to search out an optimal interval number representing all the attribute values of each object. In addition, for the subjective factors, the interval Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is adopted to determine each object’s threat weight according to the experience of commanders/experts. Then a discounting method is proposed to integrate the objective and subjective factors. At last, the ideal of Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) is applied to obtain the threat ranking of all the objects. A real application is used to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed model.