The Train Delay Model Developed by the Genetic Programming Algorithm

Abstract

The paper discusses the problem of probability distribution category identification of train delay data by a genetic programming algorithm. This train delay frequency function and the probability distribution simply derived from it are significant to train traffic modelling and management. The genetic programming algorithm was used as an uninformed tool to prevent the influence of a priori information, which should be biased. The real traffic data were aggregated into predefined bins and then the frequencies of the individual delays were computed. The genetic programming algorithm was used in the next step as a symbolic regression tool to discover their frequency function in the form of an algebraic expression. The results concluded that although data has no known distribution, their distributions are similar to exponential ones.