Identification and Evaluation of Urban Rail Transit Operation Risk Factors Based on Entropy-AHP Hybrid Constrained DEA Method

Abstract

The whole society is increasingly aware of the importance of urban rail transit (URT) safety and risk management. In order to correctly identify and evaluate the risk factors of URT operation and then classify and take differential measures to deal with the risk factors, the risk sources of URT accidents were analyzed by fault tree analysis and the URT operation risk evaluation index system concerning 8 categories and 40 risk sources were constructed. The DEA (data envelopment analysis) method with entropy-AHP hybrid constraint was established, and the probability and consequences of URT operation risk were taken as decision variables to evaluate and rank various risk factors. The results show that decision-making units (DMU) 1and 2， namely, vehicle system failure and signal communication system failure, are at the largest Pareto risk units, the probability of risk can be reduced by 50.08% and 41.7%, and the risk consequences can be reduced by 35.57% and 46.83%, respectively. Staff factors and environment and management factors are the other two units closest to the maximum risk surface. A risk factor distribution matrix was established, and 40 risk factors are divided into risk factors, leverage risk factors, conventional risk factors, and influential risk factors, which provide a basis for the classification and policy of rail transit risk management.