Hybrid Improved Bird Swarm Algorithm with Extreme Learning Machine for Short-Term Power Prediction in Photovoltaic Power Generation System

Abstract

When a photovoltaic (PV) system is connected to the electric power grid, the power system reliability may be exposed to a threat due to its inherent randomness and volatility. Consequently, predicting PV power generation becomes necessary for reasonable power distribution scheduling. A hybrid model based on an improved bird swarm algorithm (IBSA) with extreme learning machine (ELM) algorithm, i.e., IBSAELM, was developed in this study for better prediction of the short-term PV output power. The IBSA model was initially used to optimize the hidden layer threshold and input weight of the ELM model. Further, the obtained optimal parameters were input into the ELM model for predicting short-term PV power. The results revealed that the IBSAELM model is superior in terms of the prediction accuracy compared to existing methods, such as support vector machine (SVM), back propagation neural network (BP), Gaussian process regression (GPR), and bird swarm algorithm with extreme learning machine (BSAELM) models. Accordingly, it achieved great benefits in terms of the utilization efficiency of whole power generation. Furthermore, the stability of the power grid was well maintained, resulting in balanced power generation, transmission, and electricity consumption.