Research on Forecast of Macroeconomic Indicators Based on Multiobjective Optimization

Abstract

In recent years, with China’s economic development entering a new normal, the total scale and complexity of economic development have increased unprecedentedly, and the requirements of government management and regulation of the economy are getting higher and higher. Traditional management concepts, methods, and tools are difficult to meet the needs of the new situation. Therefore, using computer science and technology to fully consider the correlation between various industries and explore new laws of economic operation under the new normal can provide new technical support for promoting the precision of government governance. In previous studies, Most of them take statistics and econometrics as the theoretical basis of macroeconomic decision-making research. This study is based on the analysis of the relationship between the macroeconomic indicators, the establishment of forecasting models to predict the trend of the macroeconomic indicators, and according to the relationship between various economic indicators to build a multiobjective optimization problem, through the multiobjective optimization algorithm to obtain optimal data for the government decision-making basis. In the research process, we focus on solving the problem of prediction overfitting caused by small samples of economic index data and high feature dimension of samples and how to balance the convergence and diversity of solution set in high-dimensional multiobjective optimization problems. In view of the above problems, we propose two economic index forecasting models to solve a variety of fitting problems. On the premise of optimizing space decomposition, an adaptive generation strategy based on inflection point and center point is proposed, and an adaptive solution set selection strategy based on included angle, inflection point, and strong dominance relationship is proposed to balance the convergence and diversity of the multiobjective optimization algorithm.