The Spillover Effects of U.S. Monetary Policy Normalization on the BRICS Based on Panel VAR Model

Abstract

Using the monthly data from December 2008 to March 2018 and a panel vector autoregression (PVAR) model, this paper empirically analyzes the spillover effects of U.S. monetary policy normalization on the total output, inflation, trade balance, and exchange rates in BRICS. The results show that the Fed’s interest rate hike and balance sheet shrinking will both lead to a decrease in BRICS’ output, a decline in inflation, a deterioration in the trade balance, and a depreciation of the exchange rate. In addition, the spillover effects of the Fed’s interest rate hike and shrinking of a balance sheet are both relatively long lasting, but there is a certain difference between the two effects; that is, the Fed’s interest rate hike has a greater impact on the macroeconomic variables of BRICS countries than the shrinking of balance sheet. Based on the conclusions, we propose to establish and improve the regulatory system of international capital flows, pay close attention to commodity prices, and strengthen policy coordination and communication among BRICS countries so as to mitigate the adverse impact of U.S. monetary policy normalization.