Implementation Flexibility of Multiperiod Rail Line Design with Consideration of Uncertainties in Population Distribution

Abstract

This paper aims to investigate the implementation flexibility of multiperiod rail line design in a linear monocentric city. Three alternatives (fast-tracking, deferring, and do-nothing-alternative (DNA) of a candidate rail line project) are examined, based on an in-depth uncertainties analysis of the demand side for this candidate rail line project. Conditions for the three alternatives of fast-tracking, deferring, and DNA are analytically explored and an illustrative example is given to demonstrate the application of the proposed models. Insightful findings are reported on the interrelationship between the rail line length and spatial and temporal correlation of population distribution as well as the implication of the correlation in practice. Sensitivity analyses are carried out in several scenarios in another numerical example to show the proposed conditions of three alternatives.