Periods of Excess Energy in Extreme Weather Events

Abstract

The reconstruction of periodic signals that are embedded in noise is a very important task in many applications. This already difficult task is even more complex when some observations are missed or some are presented irregularly in time. Kolmogorov-Zurbenko (KZ) filtration, a well-developed method, offers a solution to this problem. One section of this paper provides examples of very precise reconstructions of multiple periodic signals covered with high level noise, noise levels that make those signals invisible within the original data. The ability to reconstruct signals from noisy data is applied to the numerical reconstruction of tidal waves in atmospheric pressure. The existence of such waves was proved by well-known naturalist Chapman, but due to the high synoptic fluctuation in atmospheric pressure he was unable to numerically reproduce the waves. Reconstruction of the atmospheric tidal waves reveals a potential intensification on wind speed during hurricanes, which could increase the danger imposed by hurricanes. Due to the periodic structure of the atmospheric tidal wave, it is predictable in time and space, which is important information for the prediction of excess force in developing hurricanes.